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Arctic-IPY programmes

Arctic Synoptic Basin-wide Oceanography (ASBO)

Coupled climate models* predict that the Arctic is warming about two or three times faster than the global average.

One consequence of this warming is a change in the storage and transport of Arctic freshwater, both within the Arctic and through the gateways to the world's oceans.

Models and paleooceanographic data show that increased freshwater flow from the Arctic to the North Atlantic can lead to a slowing, or even a shutdown, of the oceans' thermohaline circulation. A decrease of overturning water in the North Atlantic could lead to Northern Europe cooling; so understanding these changes is one of the highest priorities for the UK and for NERC science.

Our understanding of the mechanisms by which freshwater entering the Arctic is transformed (by mixing with salt water), stored and exported, is currently based on fragmented observations and poorly constrained models.

The International Polar Year (IPY) will provide the first opportunity to obtain a survey of the physical structure of the whole Arctic basin. Our programme will then use state-of-the-art numerical models that combine new IPY data with historical and satellite data. These models will provide us with new estimates of the storage and transport of fresh water in the Arctic - both for the present, recent past and next century.

Our overall aim is to determine the origin of the excess freshwater which has been observed in the North Atlantic and Nordic seas during the last five decades.

Our specific objectives are to:

  • Quantify the current fresh water (both solid and liquid) and salt content of the Arctic Ocean.

  • Quantify the heat and freshwater exchanges between the Arctic shelves and deep basins.

  • Quantify freshwater exchange between Arctic sea ice and the surface and halocline layers.

  • Determine the origin of changes in Arctic Ocean and North Atlantic salinity structure.

  • Determine the extent to which the thermohaline structure of the Arctic Ocean and its evolution is properly represented in Global Climate Models.

* Coupled models look at two different earth systems (such as oceans and atmosphere) and model how their how their interactions influence the climate.