Quantifying Uncertainty in predictions of climate change & climate impacts
Quantitative estimates of uncertainty are a key element of the user requirement for climate predictions, but the challenge of producing such estimates has received little attention.
Many current predictions simply represent uncertainty in terms of an ensemble of different model predictions, with no indication as to whether some predictions may be more trustworthy than others, or what is the actual likely range within which we should expect future observable quantities to fall.
All approaches to generating more useful estimates rely on bringing together models and observations. Statistical modelling plays a key role but there are many outstanding issues that require research. There are a number of approaches and the most appropriate methods to generate the required information have yet to be established. More about the Quantifying Uncertainty programme