RAPID-WATCH

Announcement of opportunity

The Natural Environment Research Council research programme RAPID-WATCH, building on RAPID, will deliver a decade-long (2004-2014) time series of the strength and structure of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) using the RAPID-WATCH observing system. These observations, in conjunction with other relevant research and data, will be used to determine and interpret recent changes in the Atlantic MOC, to improve assessment of the risk of rapid climate change due to MOC change, and to investigate the potential for predictions of the MOC and its impacts on climate.

The RAPID-WATCH research programme science plan has two key objectives:

To deliver a decade-long time series of calibrated and quality-controlled measurements of the Atlantic MOC from the RAPID-WATCH observing system
To exploit the data from the RAPID-WATCH observing system and elsewhere to determine and interpret recent changes in the Atlantic MOC, assess the risk of rapid climate change, and investigate the potential for predictions of the MOC and its impacts on climate.

The second objective is the subject of this Announcement of Opportunity and will be addressed through studies answering four questions:

How can we exploit data from the RAPID-WATCH observing system to obtain estimates of the MOC and related variables?
What do the observations from the RAPID-WATCH observing system and other sources tell us about the nature and causes of recent changes in the Atlantic Ocean?
What are the implications of RAPID-WATCH observing system data and other recent observations for estimates of the risk due to rapid change in the MOC?
Could we use RAPID-WATCH and other observations to help predict future changes in the MOC and climate?

This Announcement of Opportunity calls for outline bid proposals (each proposal to address only one of the four RAPID-WATCH questions) that will make a major contribution to the RAPID-WATCH deliverables listed below:

An observed time series of the MOC and associated variables from 2004-2014, and interpretation of the observations in the broader context of Atlantic and European climate.
A tested design for a cost-efficient and robust system suitable for operational monitoring of the MOC.
An assessment of the scientific (and in broad terms, socio-economic) benefits of an MOC monitoring system, including estimated timescales on which the full benefits would be realised. To include applications for: detection and attribution of unusual MOC change, reducing uncertainty in MOC projections, initialising MOC predictions (early warning system).
A robust and scientifically credible assessment - specifically informed by the RAPID and RAPID-WATCH observations, modelling and synthesis - of the risk to the UK, Europe and other regions of a rapid change in the Atlantic MOC affecting our climate. This will address the probability, rate and expected magnitude of MOC-related rapid climate change, and associated uncertainties.

Proposals

The RAPID-WATCH programme has a total of c. £1m (where this is 80% of Full Economic Costs) available to fund innovative grant proposals that respond to questions 1 and 2 and c. £2m (where this is 80% of Full Economic Costs) available to fund grant proposals that respond to questions 3 and 4. It is anticipated that these funds will be split approximately equally between questions 1 and 2, and 3 and 4, respectively.

Proposals are required, not only to address the second objective and one of the associated questions, but also to detail how they shall contribute to the RAPID-WATCH deliverables (though it is not necessary to contribute to all the deliverables). Furthermore, in 2011 RAPID-WATCH will carry out an evaluation of the value of the observing system, as part of the process to determine whether it should become fully operational beyond 2014. Work carried out in response to this Announcement of Opportunity is expected to contribute to this evaluation activity.

All proposals are required to demonstrate how they will contribute to broader UK and international activities - both funded and/or proposed - in the area of RAPID-WATCH science. Proposals with strong international collaborations are encouraged.

Proposed projects for each of the questions are required to address the following (see the science plan for more details):

Question 1: How can we exploit data from the RAPID-WATCH observing system to obtain estimates of the MOC and related variables?

This project must:

contribute to the evaluation of the MOC observing system assessment in 2011
obtain estimates of the MOC by combining data from the RAPID-WATCH observing system and other sources (e.g. Argo) with ocean models
provide a dynamically consistent description of the evolving state of the Atlantic
provide estimates of related variables, such as northward ocean heat transport

Question 2: What do the observations from the RAPID-WATCH observing system and other sources tell us about the nature and causes of recent changes in the Atlantic Ocean?

This project must:

contribute to the evaluation of the MOC observing system assessment in 2011
focus on the evolution of the MOC over the last 50 years
link changes in the basin-scale MOC with the various possible drivers of change
investigate the attribution of those changes between natural variability and anthropogenic forcing

Questions 3: What are the implications of RAPID-WATCH array data and other recent observations for estimates of the risk due to rapid change in the MOC?

This project must:

contribute to the evaluation of the MOC observing system assessment in 2011
investigate how observations of the MOC can be used to constrain estimates of the probability of rapid MOC change, including the magnitude and rate of change
make sound statistical inferences about the real climate system from model simulations and observations
investigate impacts at smaller spatial scales and develop more detailed scenarios for rapid climate change
investigate the dependence of model uncertainty on such factors as changes of resolution
assess model uncertainty in climate impacts and characterise impacts that have received less attention (e.g. frequency of extremes)

Question 4: Could we use RAPID-WATCH and other observations to help predict future changes in the MOC and climate?

This project must:

contribute to the evaluation of the MOC observing system assessment in 2011
investigate the possible development of an MOC prediction system (in conjunction with work at the Hadley Centre on decadal prediction)
investigate the degree of predictability in the MOC and skill of MOC hindcasts
investigate the quantitative and time-dependent (lead-lag) relationships between changes in the MOC and changes in climate
investigate the ensemble design for sampling uncertainty (from initial conditions, model choice and scenarios) in MOC predictions
investigate the interaction between the influence of ocean initial conditions and the influence of changing external forcing
investigate the observational requirements for MOC prediction

Proposals addressing questions 3 and 4 above must demonstrate close partnership with the Hadley Centre in achieving their objectives and contributing to the RAPID-WATCH deliverables. Information on Hadley Centre participation in RAPID-WATCH is published on the RAPID-WATCH website.

Background information for preparing outline bid proposals

The RAPID-WATCH work plan is available on the RAPID-WATCH website, as are electronic versions of this AO and the RAPID-WATCH science plan.

Programme management and reporting arrangements

The RAPID-WATCH programme has well defined deliverables and a strict timetable for their delivery (see RAPID-WATCH science and work plans). To ensure that science projects funded under this call effectively deliver RAPID-WATCH science, all projects will be closely overseen by a RAPID-WATCH Programme Advisory Group (PAG). Projects will be required to report progress at regular intervals to the PAG - probably every six months - and attend meetings with the PAG as required. If any problems arise in the delivery of the science, projects will be required to work closely with the RAPID-WATCH Science Coordinator and members of the PAG to develop effective solutions so ensuring timely delivery of RAPID-WATCH science. All awards issued as a result of this call will have detailed terms and conditions that reflect the highly directed nature of the RAPID-WATCH science programme.

RAPID-WATCH outline bid proposals

Outline bid proposals are invited from eligible UK researchers (see the NERC Research Grants Handbook for eligibility). Proposals for awards of up to 4 years duration will be considered. For queries related to the scientific aspects of the Announcement of Opportunity please contact the Science Coordinator, Dr Meric Srokosz (Tel: 02380 596 414), and for other aspects the Programme Administrator, Michelle Manning.

Each applicant may submit no more than one proposal as Principal Investigator or Co-Investigator and may be involved as Co-Investigator in one other (i.e. a maximum of two).

Applicants will be required to submit (through Je-S) the outline bid proforma (detailing costs), and additionally append CVs for named and visiting researchers, and a case for support. Applicants can submit a case for support of up to 3 pages - of which 2 pages are for the science case and 1 page is for a breakdown and justification of the resources being requested.

The case for support must include information on:

estimated total cost
duration of the project
person years for the following categories: PGRA; PDRA; technician; tied studentship; and other
indication of HPC requirements; e.g. whether local or national resources will be used. If national HPC services will be required (e.g. HECToR, or equivalent), then an indication of the number of CPU hours should be given.

The closing date for the submission of outline bid proposals is 16:00 on 29 April 2008 (please note the extension to the previously stated deadline of 22 April 2008). Outline bids should be submitted through Je-S. Normal NERC formatting rules will apply: single-spaced typescript of minimum font size 12 point (Times New Roman or Arial font) with margins of at least 1·5cm. References can be presented in a smaller font size provided it is sufficiently clear to ensure good quality reproductions.

It is anticipated that feedback will be provided on outline bids by mid May, and those bids that are invited to be developed into full proposal will need to be submitted by a closing date in mid July.

About the programme

External links

Joint electronic-Submission (Je-S)