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Probability, Uncertainty & Risk in the Environment

Announcement of Opportunity

NERC Natural Hazards Theme

Closing date: 16:00 on 11 October 2011

The Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) invites proposals for a four-year consortium grant that will constitute the Probability, Uncertainty and Risk in the Environment research programme.

Proposals should focus on developing new methods which are demonstrably useful in a range of important applications and transferable across hazard types, in order to improve the assessment and quantification of uncertainty and risk in natural hazards science.

In particular, proposals should focus on the four linked Scientific Objectives, A to D below:

  1. To develop methods to account for model limitations through comprehensive quantification of uncertainties within NH models, including statistical models for representing aleatory uncertainty, physical models for representing the hazard footprint, engineering and biological models for representing the effect of the hazard footprint on structures and environmental systems.
     
  2. To develop methods to combine evidence through:
    1. Development of real-time evidence synthesis for hazard event management, where the emphasis is on speed and robustness.
    2. Development of new methods for broad and transparent evidence synthesis across observations, models and experts for planning.
       
  3. To develop methods to account for unquantifiable uncertainties through development of models to delineate and assess these - which typically reflect consequences of hazards that are hard to represent.
     
  4. To develop methods to improve risk models through development of tools and techniques, such as use of multi-criteria analysis to support prioritisation and decision making.

The research programme is expected to commence in June 2012 and complete in June 2016. Proposals should not exceed £2m (80% of the full economic cost to NERC). There is an expectation that proposers will seek additional funding from project partners. Please note that the consortium will also be expected to integrate with the already funded Probability, Uncertainty & Risk in the Environment research and knowledge exchange network.

Please see the Announcement of Opportunity document below for full details.

Announcement of Opportunity (298KB)

For further information about this announcement of opportunity please contact:

Blanche Coleman
Tel: 01793 442635

About the programme