e-Science
Climate in year 3000
How much warmer will the world be at the start of the next millennium? Could Britain become a subtropical oasis with a reshaped coastline?
These were questions addressed by the GENIE team in a study commissioned by the UK Environment Agency through NERC's collaborative centre the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research.
The study revealed that if people burn the known reserves of coal, oil and gas the world will get 6°C warmer with sea levels rising 3-4 metres. If unconventional fossil fuel sources are also exploited, it could get over 10°C warmer causing: a complete meltdown of the Greenland ice sheet; collapse of the global ocean conveyor; and over 10 metres of sea-level rise.
The team's models show that by globally achieving a 60 percent reduction in carbon dioxide emissions by 2050 followed by a complete stop in emissions by 2200, we might protect Greenland from melting and restrict global warming to 1·5°C.
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