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e-Science

Anticipating the tipping point

Tipping points are when changes in one part of the climate system cause a domino effect, forcing shifts in other parts of the system, for example, the slowdown of an ocean circulation.

Can we detect an approaching tipping point before we reach it? If so, an early warning would be of obvious value to people.

In principle, an early warning is possible, because a system approaching a critical transition becomes more sluggish in its response to perturbations.

GENIE researchers have developed a method that extracts information about a system's response time from time-series data. In model simulations, the method successfully anticipates a collapse of the ocean conveyor belt. It also detects the transition that marks the end of the last ice age in ice-core records.

However, the GENIE model world reveals that an effective early warning system for the real world would require a much longer record of ocean circulation than currently exists.