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Ocean temperatures and El Niño forecasts
Getting the right ocean temperatures in the tropics, particularly the Pacific, is crucial to forecasting El Niño.
Scientists working on the Grid for Coupled Ensemble Prediction project have shown that in 1998 - the warmest year on record - El Niño could have been forecast as early as October 1996 using an assimilation of sub-surface ocean temperatures, which are now available.
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