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UK Droughts & Water Scarcity

Programme background

Water is an essential, finite resource. Pressures on freshwater availability and security in the UK are increasing rapidly and pose mounting challenges for sustainable water management, particularly in southern England. Over-abstraction to meet the needs of growing populations, agricultural and industrial use, and the effects of climate change are causing multiple challenges in many water-stressed regions, and these are likely to increase.

With shifting frequency and patterns of rainfall and increasing demand for water (driven by agricultural and industrial needs, a growing population and individuals' use of more water-intensive goods and services), the effects of water shortages are becoming increasingly critical for the environment, food production, industrial efficiency and households.

Decision-making in risk-averse areas such as water supply requires high levels of confidence in forecasts. Yet we are currently unable to accurately predict the occurrence, duration and intensity of drought events. We also have a poor understanding of how these events are modulated by longer term climate and water management, as well as the factors affecting individual and community responses to such events, and the associated impacts.

At present, the drivers of drought and water scarcity, both meteorological (eg through anticyclonic blocking) and societal (eg supply and demand balance, water storage, transfer and utility trends), are considered in isolation. This means we lack knowledge about how they jointly influence the behaviour of complex hydrological, ecological, agricultural, social, cultural and economic systems. We are thus unable to effectively calculate the costs associated with stressing these systems, and it is difficult to make informed management decisions about trade-offs between competing demands.

The objective of the programme is to support improved decision-making and the identification of new and improved solutions in relation to droughts and water scarcity by providing research. This will enable users to identify, predict and respond to drought events, and to understand the interrelationships between their multiple drivers and impacts.

This initiative aims to help meet these knowledge needs though investment in collaborative, interdisciplinary research and stakeholder engagement (in co-design, production and delivery).

The programme's research will be UK-focused, and will address the following scientific goals:

1. Characterise the drivers and nature of droughts and water scarcity, including the environmental, social and cultural factors that influence their occurrence, severity and impact.
    
2. Examine the multiple and inter-linked impacts of UK droughts and water scarcity on the environment, agriculture, infrastructure, society and culture, and the trade-offs between them.
    
3. Develop methods to support decision-making for drought and water scarcity planning and management, and to assess opportunities (including community and public responses) to reduce their occurrence and severity.

The programme will adopt an end-to-end systems-based approach. This acknowledges firstly the interdisciplinary nature of the research goals, and secondly the need to take an interdisciplinary approach to understanding the interactions between the multiple drivers and impacts of droughts, as well as the tools that can be developed to cope with and mitigate extreme drought events.

The programme is part of the Living With Environmental Change (LWEC) and Global Food Security (GFS) initiatives.