COAPEC

Results and findings

Here's some of what the programme found out.

Research showed that climate datasets can miss important details like polar mesocyclones (intense small storms) and the fact that storms often come in clusters.
The programme produced a much-improved dataset of global heat transfers between the ocean and the atmosphere. This dataset fits well with what we know of ocean circulation.
New satellite data helped improve models of how sea ice influences the ocean-atmosphere system.

Researchers already knew the heat content in the North Atlantic Ocean had increased over the tropics and subtropics, but decreased over high latitudes during the past 50 years. COAPEC showed this was because the ocean circulation had changed, and so had the transfer of heat between the ocean and atmosphere. Both changes were a response to changing wind patterns.
Changes in the ocean's horizontal circulation can influence storm tracks (and weather patterns) over Europe.
Modelling studies showed that small-scale ocean eddies can slowly influence the atmosphere by changing large-scale temperature patterns.
Climate in the Pacific strongly influences variability in the tropical Atlantic, and this directly influences European climate.
Sea ice may be far more sensitive to changing climate than the climate is to changes in sea-ice.
Modelling the ocean and atmosphere together (in coupled models) can help predict the ocean's thermohaline circulation (deep currents driven by temperature and salinity).
The Atlantic Ocean's northward heat transport is closely linked to the thermohaline circulation. This circulation pattern influences European air temperatures.
Changes in atmospheric heat transport largely compensate for changes in North Atlantic Ocean heat transport, lessening the influence of the thermohaline circulation on Europe's climate. NERC's Rapid Climate Change programme is also investigating the thermohaline circulation.

Temperatures in the western Atlantic when winter starts, and during May, can help predict conditions in Europe the following winter.
In specific regions of the western Atlantic, sea surface temperature patterns can influence the air temperatures in the north-east Atlantic from days to months later.
Spring air temperatures are sensitive to the previous year's sea surface temperature.
Changes to the ocean circulation pattern around Antarctica, eg changes driven by additional freshwater, could influence European climate within a decade.
Winter deaths in the UK can be related to simple climate indicators, such as maximum temperature or the number of days below a threshold temperature. Climate predictions could well help the health service plan for cold winters.

Climateprediction.net, initially funded through COAPEC, is the world's largest experiment in forecasting 21st century climate. It uses spare capacity on personal computers, linked via the internet, to run climate models that would otherwise need supercomputers. Climateprediction.net found that average temperatures could rise by up to to 11 degrees Celsius even if atmospheric carbon dioxide is limited to twice the levels found before the industrial revolution. The research is still running.

Thanks in part to COAPEC, the UK has a strong base of experienced climate modellers. They now work in universities, NERC centres, and for forecasting agencies such as the Met Office and the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts.