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Flooding

Climate change will probably bring more frequent and more intense storms to the UK, in turn bringing more floods.

Download the Flash Player (or enable JavaScript) to view this video online. You can also download the 20.6 MB video (closed captions or alternative audio tracks will not be available).

Watch how NERC is helping to predict and prevent extreme flood events in the UK (this 20.6 MB video runs for 4 minutes and 47 seconds. Closed captions are available).

The UK has assets worth £132·2 billion at risk from coastal floods, £81·7 billion vulnerable to river floods, and £7·8 billion threatened by coastal erosion. These costs will rise further as the economy grows.

The worst damage often happens during unusual, or extreme weather, such as torrential downpours, big storms, particularly high tides, or combinations of these.

We need to be able to accurately forecast, quantify and manage flood risks if we are to protect the public, safeguard property and infrastructure, and keep our economy sustainable.

NERC's Flood Risk from Extreme Events programme, which began in 2005, aims to increase knowledge about the frequency, intensity and behaviour of extreme weather, river flows and storm surges that flood our rivers, estuaries and coasts.

How can we estimate the likelihood of floods?

We think about flood risk either as the probability of a certain sized flood occurring at any time, or the likelihood of such a flood happening within the expected life of a flood mitigation scheme, such as a sea wall. Extreme floods may occur so infrequently that there are no historical records to guide us. However we can investigate their likelihood using both statistical and modelling techniques. To do this, we need to predict how rain or snowfall patterns will change in the future, how river catchments will react to more rain and snow, how far sea level will rise, and how storm surges might affect the coasts and estuaries.

The science of uncertainty

Extreme events are, by their nature, infrequent. Scientists are trying to plan for events that have not yet happened. So there may be no data to calibrate computer models. Instead, researchers rely on innovative approaches. Scientists will develop new techniques for understanding how catchments react to the first rush of unusually heavy rain (which can produce floods with little warning); identify vulnerable areas prone to damage and where people are at risk; and improve understanding of how our shorelines evolve and interact with river flows and off-shore currents. Researchers must also know how to relate model outputs to the real world.