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Will climate change accelerate?

Scientists believe that rising greenhouse gas emissions will lead to changes in other parts of the Earth's life support system, triggering more releases of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. This may create an upward spiral, accelerating the warming we are already witnessing. These positive feedback mechanisms include:

• reduced sea ice cover reflecting less of the sun's heat back out to space, changing ocean circulation patterns

• less carbon dioxide absorption by the oceans

• increased soil respiration

• more forest fires

• melting permafrost

• increased decomposition of wetlands

The carbon dioxide released while permafrost melts could equal half as much carbon as the amount in today's atmosphere.

Increased knowledge of the global carbon cycle, and incorporating this into climate models, is a major priority for NERC researchers.