Top conservation issues to look out for in 2013
6 December 2012
A UK-led team of researchers has identified 15 issues that could affect the diversity of life on Earth in 2013. They include using synthetic DNA to genetically modify organisms, soaring demand for coconut water, and competition for land to grow plants for fish farming.
Other topics the researchers highlight include dam-building in the Andean Amazon, using coral nurseries to restore reefs, and the commercial use of short portions of antimicrobial proteins.
The emerging issues are the result of an attempt to pinpoint threats, opportunities and developments that aren't widely recognised, but which need further research in case they turn into big problems for biodiversity.
The thinking behind the exercise is to identify potential concerns, so we can respond more effectively if the researchers' projections prove accurate.
Indeed, so-called horizon scanning is used by private and public organisations to inform processes related to policy, risk assessment, strategic planning, and innovation.
"This kind of horizon scanning exercise can be useful to avoid situations where we're ill-prepared to deal with the consequences. One example is biofuels. They were promised to be a green alternative to fossil fuels, but no-one anticipated that pristine rainforest would be cleared for them," explains Professor Bill Sutherland from the University of Cambridge, who led this study.
Professor Sutherland led similar exercises in previous years to figure out which issues most need conservationists' attention, given limited research funds.
In this latest study, published in Trends in Ecology & Evolution, he invited 19 experts to submit up to five little-known issues they thought could affect biodiversity in the near future. The group came up with 72, which - after some debating - they whittled down to 15.
Many of them relate to new forms of energy production, changes in how we produce or store food, and synthetic biology – the creation of new forms of life in the lab. Most sit squarely in the 'threat' camp, but a few could be seen as opportunities that might end up benefiting the diversity of life on Earth.
One includes using super-sensitive molecular techniques to extract tiny amounts of DNA from the environment to detect the presence of rare or invasive species. These techniques have been successfully used to detect a secretive frog and a salamander in the US, as well as invasive American bullfrogs at 38 places in France where before they were thought to exist in just seven.
The scientists highlight other opportunities such as protecting and restoring tropical forests using tiny unmanned aerial vehicles. Remotely-controlled drones could be used to collect and plant local seeds. This approach is a lot cheaper than raising seedlings in nurseries then planting them out. And recent advances in GPS technology means the process could be automated.
Some topics like 3D printing or the rapid growth of concentrated solar power, while in many ways beneficial to the environment, could also have their downsides. The point is that right now, nobody knows how or even if these technologies will affect biodiversity.
"We hope horizon scanning will help us identify emerging threats to biodiversity before rather than after they've had a major impact," says Professor Ken Norris from the University of Reading, NERC's biodiversity theme leader, who co-authored the study.
"In this paper we've once again identified both new threats and opportunities presented by a number of emerging issues. It is perhaps telling however, that most of the effects we have on the natural environment continue to give rise to negative consequences for biodiversity and ecosystem services," says Professor Michael Depledge from the European Centre for Environment & Human Health, another co-author of the study.
The study was funded by the Natural Environment Research Council, the European Centre for Environment & Human Health and the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds.
The 15 issues that could affect biodiversity in 2013
- Rapid growth of concentrated solar power
- Widespread development of thorium-fuelled nuclear power
- Seabed located oil drilling and processing
- Accelerating water cycle
- Proliferation of hydropower in the Andean Amazon
- Species loss as a driver of global environmental change
- Vegetarian aquaculture feed
- Rapid rise in global demand for coconut water
- Detecting aquatic species with environmental DNA
- Use of coral nurseries for reef restoration
- Forest conservation and restoration by micro unmanned aerial vehicles
- The 3D printing revolution
- A link between biodiversity, allergy and autoimmune disease
- The commercial use of antimicrobial peptides
- Synthetic genetics
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Authors' contact details:
Professor William Sutherland
University of Cambridge
Tel: 01223 336686
Professor Ken Norris
University of Reading
Tel: 0118 378 6535
Professor Michael Depledge
European Centre for Environment & Human Health
Tel: 01752 437402
1. NERC is the UK's main agency for funding and managing world-class research, training and knowledge exchange in the environmental sciences. It coordinates some of the world's most exciting research projects, tackling major issues such as climate change, food security, environmental influences on human health, the genetic make-up of life on earth, and much more. NERC receives around £300m a year from the government's science budget, which it uses to fund research and training in universities and its own research centres.
2. The University of Cambridge's mission is to contribute to society through the pursuit of education, learning and research at the highest international levels of excellence. Cambridge's reputation for excellence is known internationally and reflects the scholastic achievements of its academics and students, as well as the world-class original research carried out by its staff. Some of the most significant scientific breakthroughs occurred at the University, including the splitting of the atom, invention of the jet engine and the discoveries of stem cells, plate tectonics, pulsars and the structure of DNA. From Isaac Newton to Stephen Hawking, the University has nurtured some of history's greatest minds and has produced more Nobel Prize winners than any other UK institution with over 80 laureates.
3. The University of Reading is a global university ranked in the top 1% of universities world-wide (THE World University Rankings 2012). Courses in agriculture are rated as the best in the UK (Guardian & Complete university guides 2013).
4. The European Centre for Environment & Human Health represents one research theme of the University of Exeter Medical School. The Centre conducts research into both the threats and opportunities to human health posed by our interaction with the natural environment. It is part financed by the European Regional Development Fund Programme 2007 to 2013 and European Social Fund Convergence Programme for Cornwall and the Isles of Scilly.
5. The Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB) is the largest wildlife conservation organisation in Europe with over one million members. It speaks out for birds and wildlife, tackling the problems that threaten our environment.
Press release: 30/12
- University of Cambridge
- University of Reading
- European Centre for Environment & Human Health
- Royal Society for the Protection of Birds
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