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Warmer climates lead to more extreme rainfall

8 August 2008

Researchers have confirmed the link between a warmer climate and more intense tropical rainstorms after analysing 20 years of satellite data.

Dr Richard Allan of the Environmental Systems Science Centre at the University of Reading and Dr Brian Soden from the University of Miami's Rosenstiel School of Marine & Atmospheric Science used naturally-driven changes in climate associated with El Niño to investigate how precipitation responds to a warmer climate.

The research, published in the journal Science Express and funded by the Natural Environment Research Council, found that both satellite observations and models indicated an increase in heavy rainstorms in response to a warmer climate.

Climate models have long predicted that global warming will increase the intensity of extreme precipitation events, but this is the first time observational evidence has been used to confirm the link. The research showed that the observed amplification of rainfall extremes is found to be larger than previously predicted, suggesting that forecasted changes in rainfall extremes may have been underestimated.

Dr Allan said, "Comparing observations with results from computer models improves our understanding of how rainfall responds to a warming world. Differences can relate to deficiencies in the measurements, or the models used to predict future climatic change. This research is based on 20 years of satellite observations, and we found a distinct link between rainfall extremes and temperature. This means that heavy rain events are likely to increase during warm periods and decrease during cold periods.

"One of the most serious challenges that humanity will face in response to climate change is adapting to changes in extreme weather events. There is a major concern that heavy rainstorms will become more common and more intense in a warmer climate. Floods can completely devastate areas and people's livelihoods and so this knowledge could have massive implications on how we plan for our changing climate in the future."

Dr Soden, associate professor at the University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine & Atmospheric Science, said, "A surprising result is that the models appear to underestimate the increase in intensity of the heaviest rain events to warming. This suggests that model projections of future changes in rainfall extremes due to human-caused global warming may also be underestimated."

Further information

Dr Lucy Chappell
Communications Office
University of Reading
Tel: 0118 378 7391

NERC Press Office
Natural Environment Research Council
Polaris House, North Star Avenue
Swindon, SN2 1EU
Tel: 01793 411561
Mob: 07917 557215

Notes

1. 'Atmospheric Warming and the Amplification of Precipitation Extremes' was published in the journal Science Express on 7/08/08.

2. Dr Richard Allan is a NERC Advanced Fellow at the Environmental Systems Science Centre (ESSC) at the University of Reading which forms an integral part of the Natural Environment Research Council's (NERC) National Centre for Earth Observation (NCEO).

3. The ESSC is affiliated with the Walker Institute for Climate System Research. The Walker Institute for Climate System Research brings together the unrivalled breadth and depth of climate expertise that exists within the University of Reading. The University of Reading is ranked as one of the UK's top research-intensive universities. The quality and diversity of the university's research and teaching is recognised internationally as one of the top 200 universities in the world. The university is home to more than 50 research centres, many of which are recognised as international centres of excellence in areas such as agriculture, biological and physical sciences, European histories and cultures, and meteorology.

4. The Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) funds world-class science, in universities and its own research centres, that increases knowledge and understanding of the natural world. It is tackling major environmental issues such as climate change, biodiversity and natural hazards. NERC receives around £400m a year from the government's science budget, which is used to provide independent research and training in the environmental sciences.

Press release: 43/07

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