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Health forecasts and climate prediction

20 May 2005

Knowing something about the climate of the forthcoming winter could help the NHS to plan ahead and cope more efficiently with a range of winter health situations, new research results show.

Full details of the research will be presented at a conference in London on Tuesday 24 May 2005.

Scientists working together on the COAPEC Programme (Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Processes and European Climate) have found strong links between a range of winter health statistics and simple climate indicators such as maximum temperature or number of days at very low temperatures. These links indicate that predictions of winter climate, one month to one season ahead, could be used to produce health forecasts.

Dr Helen Snaith, Science Coordinator for the COAPEC Programme, explains, "The first two weeks of January is a critical time for illnesses like 'flu, and general sickness among the elderly. The NHS comes under immense pressure during this time, particularly as its own staffing levels could be affected by illness."

"Climate-based health predictions would be extremely useful tools to help the health service plan their priority operations and to free up extra beds for vulnerable patients who are battling winter illnesses."

Despite this clear potential the best seasonal forecasts still cannot predict the key winter climate indicators accurately enough for most winter months. The COAPEC research should go a long way towards making climate-based health forecasting a distinct possibility as seasonal climate modelling technology improves.

This is just one of the many research projects carried out over the past six years by the COAPEC Programme, which aimed to plug the gaps in scientific research that underpins many major European climate change initiatives. Other projects have included work on how heat is transferred northward by the North Atlantic ocean and how the atmosphere compensates for variations in the amount of heat being transported, and the world's largest climate prediction experiment using home computers in many different countries.

Further information

NERC Press Office
Natural Environment Research Council
Polaris House, North Star Avenue
Swindon, SN2 1EU
Tel: 01793 411561
Mob: 07917 557215

Notes

1. Researchers will present their results at a conference at Regent's College, Regent's Park, London, on Tuesday 24 May 2005. The conference starts at 15:30 and will run until 18:00. Members of the press are very welcome to attend the talks.

2. The Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) invested £5m in the COAPEC Programme, which supported 20 research projects and 14 studentships. The programme involved more than 100 scientists in universities, NERC research centres, the Met Office and the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts.

Press release: 23/05