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Bleak first results from the world's largest climate change experiment

27 January 2005

Greenhouse gases could cause global temperatures to rise by more than double the maximum warming so far considered likely by the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), according to results from the world's largest climate prediction experiment, published in the journal Nature this week.

The first results from climateprediction.net, a global experiment using computing time donated by the general public, show that average temperatures could eventually rise by up to 11°C - even if carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere are limited to twice those found before the industrial revolution. Such levels are expected to be reached around the middle of this century unless deep cuts are made in greenhouse gas emissions.

Chief scientist for climateprediction.net, David Stainforth, from Oxford University said: "Our experiment shows that increased levels of greenhouse gases could have a much greater impact on climate than previously thought."

Climateprediction.net project co-ordinator, Dr David Frame, said: "the possibility of such high responses to carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has profound implications. If the real world response were anywhere near the upper end of our range, even today's levels of greenhouse gases could already be dangerously high."

The project, funded by the Natural Environment Research Council, is ongoing and involves more than 95,000 people from 150 countries. Schools, businesses and individuals across the globe can download the free software which incorporates the Met Office's climate model and runs in the background when their computers lie idle.

The programme runs through a climate scenario over the course of a few days or weeks, before automatically reporting results back to climate researchers at Oxford University and collaborating institutions worldwide, via the internet.

Participants have simulated over four million model years and donated over 8,000 years of computing time, making climateprediction.net easily the world's largest climate modelling experiment, comfortably exceeding the processing capacity of the world's largest supercomputers. This allows the project to explore a wide range of uncertainties, picking up previously unidentified high-impact possibilities.

"Using the technique of distributed computing and the generous support of many thousands of individuals we have been able to carry out an experiment which would otherwise have been impossible," explained Dr Andrew Martin of the Oxford e-Science Centre.

Scientists at Oxford are urging more people to become involved. Mr Stainforth said, "Having found that these extreme responses are a realistic possibility, we need people's support more than ever to pin down the risk of such strong warming and understand its regional impacts."

"This ongoing project allows anyone to participate in science that affects us all," he added.

Professor Bob Spicer of the Open University, has developed extensive web-based educational materials around the project. He said, "Schools can run the software and build the experiment into science, geography and maths lessons with help from our new teaching materials. And everyone can take part in the lively debates on our internet discussion forum that has attracted more than 5,000 people."

In May the Open University will start a distance-learning course based on the project. Anyone can register and learn even more about simulating and predicting climate change.

Further information

Sylvia Knight
Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics
Clarendon Laboratory
Parks Road
Oxford OX1 3PU
Tel: 01865 272887
Mob: 07810 615884

NERC Press Office
Natural Environment Research Council
Polaris House, North Star Avenue
Swindon, SN2 1EU
Tel: 01793 411561
Mob: 07917 557215

Notes

1.The paper, 'Uncertainty in the predictions of the climate response to rising levels of greenhouse gases', appears in Nature, 27 January 2005, vol 433. More information and high resolution colour images and animations are available from the climateprediction.net press office. For a pdf of the paper contact the NERC press office.

2. Climateprediction.net is a collaboration between several UK Universities and The Met Office, led by the University of Oxford and funded by the Natural Environment Research Council and the Department of Trade and Industry’s e-Science programme.

3. An assessment of the climate response and impacts associated with different greenhouse gas levels is the aim of Stabilisation 2005, next week’s international conference proposed by Prime Minister Tony Blair.

4. NERC is one of the UK's research councils. It uses a budget of about £300m a year to fund and carry out impartial scientific research in the sciences of the environment. NERC trains the next generation of independent environmental scientists. It is addressing some of the key questions facing mankind such as global warming, renewable energy and sustainable economic development

5. In the summer of 2004 climateprediction.net dramatically increased its processing power by joining forces with the world’s most powerful computer network, SETI@home, the Search For Extra-Terrestrial Intelligence, based at the University of California in Berkeley. Scientists from Oxford and Berkeley designed new software that allows climateprediction.net to run on the SETI platform called BOINC.

6. Participating institutions

• University of Oxford, Atmospheric, Oceanic & Planetary Physics
• University of Oxford, Computing Laboratory
• London School of Economics
• Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, British Atmospheric Data Centre
• The Open University, Earth Sciences Department
• The Open University, Knowledge Media Institute
• The Met Office
• The University of Reading, Department of Meteorology
• Tessella Support Services plc
• The Numerical Algorithms Group Ltd
• Risk Management Solutions Inc
• Research Systems Inc

Press release: 09/05