UK may get as cold as Iceland within 20 years

16 January 2003

You may be feeling a bit warmer than you were last week but you might have to get used to a climate more like Iceland's in the future.

NERC is investing £20m for research into the causes of rapid climate change. It has recently awarded £11m for 20 research proposals in the first stage of its RAPID Climate Change programme. The largest single sum, around £4m, has been awarded to researchers at the Southampton Oceanography Centre (SOC).

Professor Jochem Marotzke at SOC will lead a six-year project recording changes taking place in the Atlantic Ocean. There are concerns that global warming could have knock-on effects on the stability of the climate in the North Atlantic - paradoxically making the region much colder. In as little as 20 years the climate in northern Europe could be some five degrees Centigrade cooler than it would otherwise be.

Prof Marotzke says, "If UK temperatures dropped by five degrees, we would have a climate similar to that of Iceland."

He will set up a chain of moorings across the Atlantic that will monitor changes in strength and temperature of the ocean currents, which are the key to regulating our climate. Positioned at latitude 25 degrees north, off the coasts of Florida and Africa, measurements will be made from just below the sea surface to the ocean floor 5km below.

At present warm Atlantic water is pulled northwards towards the Arctic, releasing heat into the atmosphere ensuring that landmasses such as Europe are considerable warmer than places at similar latitudes around the Pacific, such as Alaska. Near the Arctic this colder, denser water sinks and makes the return journey south, close to the Atlantic seafloor. The current system is known as the Conveyor Belt, and includes the Gulf Stream.

Professor Marotzke is an ocean modeller of international status. He comments, "My fear is that in a warmer world, rainfall would increase and this extra fresh water could disrupt deep-sea convection. Fresh water could act like a lid to inhibit the release of heat and reduce the amount of warm water transported northwards. Maybe even stopping the Conveyor Belt."

Other researchers help to understand the likelihood of such climate change by looking at what has happened in the past. Knowing about past climate changes helps researchers model the processes involved in climate change. If models can accurately simulate historical change, there is a strong basis for predicting potential rapid climate change over the next 100 years.

Further information

Prof Marotzke
Tel: 023 8059 3755

Kim Brown
Press Officer
Tel: 023 8059 6170

Notes

1. In this first stage of the RAPID Climate Change programme five other scientists at SOC have been awarded funding for research into aspects of rapid climate change. Other academic institutions to benefit from the awards are: British Antarctic Survey, University of Bristol, University of Keele, University of Cambridge, University of Liverpool, University of East Anglia, University of Reading, University of Southampton and University College London.

UK may get as cold as Iceland within 20 years

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