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NERC scientist leads new research study on climate change prediction

4 October 2000

Scientists are, for the first time, using direct observations of 'man-made' climate change over the past few decades to pin down what is likely to happen next.

Dr Myles Allen from the Rutherford Appleton Laboratory has been leading a team of researchers in a study, featured in this week's Nature magazine, aiming to reduce the current levels of uncertainty in 50-year climate forecasts.

Dr Allen said, "Making a 50 year climate forecast is like trying to predict where a javelin is going to land. In the past we've relied entirely on computer systems of the javelin thrower (ie. the climate system). We can now see what's happening to the javelin after it has left her hand - that is, we are using solid evidence that human-induced climate change has actually begun so we can pin down some of the uncertainties in long-range climate forecasts. This is a fundamental new source of information."

Dr Allen and his colleagues estimate that if we carry on in a 'business as usual' fashion, global warming directly attributed to human influences could be as little as 1°C or as much as 2½°C by the middle of this century. This range of estimates should reduce over the next few years as the team gathers more data.

Further information

Dr Myles Allen
Rutherford Appleton Laboratory (RAL)
Tel: 01235 446480

Jacky Hutchinson
Press Officer, RAL
Tel: 01235 446482
Mob: 0777 5585 811

Press Office
Hadley Centre, Met. Office
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NERC Press Office
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Mob: 07917 086369 or 557215

Notes

1. Dr Myles Allen is a Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) Research Fellow. NERC leads in providing independent research and training in the environmental sciences.

2. Other members of the research team are: Dr Peter Stott and Dr John Mitchell from the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction & Research, Bracknell; Dr Reiner Schnur from the Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Hamburg; and Dr Thomas Delworth from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton NJ, USA.

Press release: 19/00

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