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"Significant risk" of oil production peaking in ten years

8 October 2009

A new report, published today by the UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC), argues that conventional oil production is likely to peak before 2030, with a significant risk of a peak before 2020.

The report concludes that the UK Government is not alone in being unprepared for such an event - despite oil supplying a third of the world's energy.

The report finds that we are entering an era of slow and expensive oil as resources get harder to find, extract and produce. Major new discoveries, such as those announced recently in the Gulf of Mexico, will only delay the peak by a matter of days or weeks.

Simply maintaining global production at today's level would need the equivalent of a new Saudi Arabia every three years.

The report's chief author, Steve Sorrell, senior researcher at UKERC, said, "In our view, forecasts which delay a peak in conventional oil production until after 2030 are at best optimistic and at worst implausible.

"And given the world's overwhelming dependence upon oil and the time required to develop alternatives, 2030 isn't far away. The concern is that rising oil prices will encourage the rapid development of carbon-intensive alternatives which will make it difficult or impossible to prevent dangerous climate change."

The report defends more optimistic estimates of the size of oil resources but notes that much of this is in smaller less accessible fields which may only be produced relatively slowly and at high cost.

More information can be found in the UKERC press release and the report can be downloaded from the UKERC website.

Further information

NERC Press Office
Natural Environment Research Council
Polaris House, North Star Avenue
Swindon, SN2 1EU
Tel: 01793 411561
Mob: 07917 557215

Notes

1. The UK Energy Research Centre is the focal point for UK research on sustainable energy. It takes an independent, whole-systems approach, drawing on engineering, economics and the physical, environmental and social sciences.

2. The centre's role is to promote cohesion within the overall UK energy research effort. It acts as a bridge between the UK energy research community and the wider world, including business, policymakers and the international energy research community, and is the centrepiece of the UK Research Councils' Energy Programme.

Briefing note: 08/09